Global Implications of US Foreign Policy

 When visiting Iran in 2016, I was left with a great deal of time on my hands.  Seems many Iranians - especially the ones I am in contact with, like to sleep at dawn and wake up in the afternoon.  As an early riser, I was often left alone with my thoughts - and so jotted down some - not in any particular order, but as if to think out loud.  A diary of sorts.    The current events prompted me to visit these notes.  Though seems like a world away since then, but is it?

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Global Implications of US Foreign Policy 

Present, Past, and Future

Current hot spots and trends:

Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Daesh, Saudi Arabia

 

US Goals:  Total domination.

Military dominance (includes space) , economical (incudes control of resources, renewable (oil) and non-renewable, cultural (neo-colonialism through cultural imperialism, media, information technology) – clearly, all of which are related.

 

Military domination does not require elaboration.   At the same time, it is worth noting that the strength of the military is used to control the international system – preferably not to engage in warfare.   Controlling the international system (dominance over oil, shipping lanes, neo-liberal economics, etc.) enables the complete control of allies and adversaries.    It is also an option the US uses to ‘reassure’ allies and encourages them to work with the US in achieving American goals – often at odds with their own.   Aside from the bases the US has established around the world (many countries actually PAY the US for these bases!), the US wants complete control of the seas. 

 The thinking that ‘whoever  controls the waves, controls the word’, put forward by Admiral McMahon is in full effect. During the Iran-Iraq war" a former senior Defense Department official observed, "'Gulf waters' now extend from the Straits of Malacca to the South Atlantic." Nevertheless, bases nearer the Gulf had a special importance, and Pentagon planners urged "as substantial a land presence in the as can be managed." The Gulf states were reluctant to have too overt a relationship with the United States, but the Iran-Iraq war served to overcome some of this reluctance.

The US has not ratified the United Nations Treaty on the Law of the Seas but instead has promoted the policy of Freedom of Navigation – which really means control of the seas, especially the world chock points..

 While we may think of this control in terms of oil, passage of finished goods and food are equally important.  This is partially responsible for the conflicts in Syria, Yemen, Ukraine/Crimea, the Persian Gulf, South China Sea.

 Other important US foreign policies (aside from control of the waves) are to curb Russia’s emergence as a global player.  Contain China.    It was felt that the domination of  the Heartland (Eastern Europe, Russia, Central Asia) would lead to the domination of the World.  To present Islam as an enemy (and Iran), and total control of the internet (Rumsfeld 2003 Information Operations Roadmap).

Russia: At the end of the Cold WarProminent Americans such as Wolfowitz and (CFR)Rustow opined that it was important to contain Russia (the Heartland – Defense Planning Guideline 1992, 1993).    It was felt that the domination of  Euro Asia (the land lying between Europe and Asia proper; namely, those made up of Western and Central Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, part of Caucasus,Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, andKyrgyzstan) was key to the domination of the World. 

 As recently as April 2015, during a speech at the Army War College Strategy Conference, Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work elaborated on how the Pentagon plans to counter the three types of wars supposedly being waged by Iran, Russia, and China. 

 Importantly, US has subjugated its national interest to that of Israel.   While initially Israel was a base for the US, its influence has grown to the point that it dominates US.   .  Israel (through US Congress) has actually succeeded in reversing the tying of aid – US firms are required to purchase from Israel about sixty cents worth of Israeli goods for every $1 which the US provides in military grants. And as Israel’s largest trade partner, the European Union benefits from US aid which helps to finance its exports to Israel.  (http://www.mees.com/postedarticles/finance/iraq/a46n09b01.htm Dr. T. Stauffer was a well-respected economist and engineer who taught at Harvard. He passed in 2005.

 Its through this prism that one needs to look at current trouble spots and the players: Saudi Arabia, Daesh, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Iran.

Decades ago, the most important commodity was considered to be oil (I share the view of many scholars that today water is the most essential commodity).   The 1973 Arab-Israeli war further strengthened the American resolve in its determination to secure the flow of oil to its European allies, Japan, Israel, and its own domestic use. A renewable 15-year Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the U.S. and Israel was signed in September 1975, the United States undertook to promptly make oil available for purchase by Israel.  If Israel was unable to secure the necessary means to transport such oil to Israel, the United States Government will make every effort to help Israel secure the necessary means of transport – even before supplying America.  After the revolution, IRI  put a stop to this and Israel was forced to buy more expensive oil from Russia – footed by the U.S.  

In the mid 1980s, Israel was involved in talks  on a plan for an Iraq-Jordanian pipeline to the Red Sea port of Aqaba.

Given the value of oil and the leverage the US has over its transit, America’s actions post 911 indicate that oil has taken a back seat to other considerations.  Upon taking office, Pres. George W. Bush commissioned the Bakers Institute (Rice University) and the Council on Foreign Relations to study the energy trends and requirements of the 21^st century.

http://www.rice.edu/energy/publications/docs/TaskForceReport_Final.pdf

The comprehensive report recommended that not only should the administration ease its Iraqi oil-field investment restrictions, but actions and policies should be taken to promote the well-being of the Iraqi people which was being undermined in light of the sanctions and the continuous bombings.

Furthermore, the report favored the Iranian route for the Caspian oil exports which would serve several purposes. In itself, it would translate into a policy shift towards Tehran, and throw Iran as a counterweight to Iraq. The transport of oil through Iran versus the prohibitively expensive longer and costly Baku-Ceyhan pipeline would be of great benefit to the West, and the world, and help build up the drastically low global spare capacity. Of note, the Kazakh officials had been in favor of the Iran route, as well as the US oil companies such as Chevron, Exxon-Mobil and Conoco.

 But military –media industrial complex trumped oil securities.  Arguably, oil and military hardware are not the only factors.   (Iran deal).

 

WATER. A new NASA study (September 2016) finds that the recent drought that began in 1998 in the eastern Mediterranean Levant region, which comprises Cyprus, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria and Turkey, is likely the worst drought of the past nine centuries.  In a May 2001 quotes Jean-Louis Sarbib, Vice President of the World Bank’s Middle East and North Africa Region, as saying that the CIA had identified water as one of the key issues of the 21st century.

 Additionally, The primary goal of the early Zionist leadership was to control and secure the region’s waters.   At the Paris Peace Conference of 1919, Chaim Weizmann declared that ‘it was of vital importance not only to secure all water resources feeding the country, but to control them at the sources – and the development of these waters became the primary aim of the Yishuv as a whole[i].    This policy remained in place. As Israel’s third Prime Minister Levi Eshkol put it, water was “the blood flowing through the arteries of the nation”.

 Even with the occupation of Golan and its waters, Israel faced one of its worst droughts in 1990-91.  A second more serious drought in 1998, forced it to turn to water rich Turkey.  Turkey and Israel engaged in serious negotiations starting in May 2000 to import 50 billion cubic meters of fresh water from Turkey using tanker ships, but using tankers was not cost effective for the transport of water.  Alternate plans were suggested.

 In September 2000,  the same year that young Bashar-al Assad succeeded his father as President of Syria, a strategy paper entitled “The Geopolitics of Water” by the Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies (IASPS) opined that "Since extensive water planning proposals will necessitate the establishment of pipelines and energy grids stretching across borders, a political and military structure that can ensure the safety and security of the carriers will be the prerequisite to effective water sharing” ….. “But an effective regional system would require political-military cooperation against Syria”. 

 The cooperation of the Arab states became important.

 states of Syria, Turkey and Iraq themselves have directly conferred on the issue of sharing the water of the Tigris and Euphrates.  According to Thomas Naff, a professor of Middle East History at Pennsylvania State University, the Tigris and Euphrates rivers which provide Iraq with nearly 100% of its water “depend essentially on agreements with Turkey” where both rivers originate. Turkey disagrees over quotas to meet Syria and Iraq’s minimum requirements for what would be the natural flow of the water and what would provide their people with adequate access to those resources, claiming that Syria and Iraq take more than their allotted amount of water from the rivers as compared to how much each country contributes to the rivers’ flows.  Thus Turkey began constructing a major series of dams to control the waters of the Tigris and Euphrates and flex their regional muscle.   Iraq and Syria effectively tabled their mutual disagreements and colluded in 1998 to resist the construction of the Southeast Anatolia Project in Turkey. 

 Stephen Pelletiere, a former CIA analyst, wrote in the New York Times that Turkey had envisioned building a Peace Pipeline carrying water that would extend to the southern Gulf States, and as he sees it, “by extension to Israel.” He continued by saying that “no progress has been made on this, largely because of Iraqi intransigence. With Iraq in American hands, of course, all that could change.”  And now Syria.

 Myth of Israel fulfilling its water needs.  Environmental law, environment, cost,  and ideology.

 So in conclusion: Both Iraq and Syria and Syria are about control of the region, oil and water, curbing Russia (Mediterranean).   One could add expansion of Israel – the Greater Israel.

 

Turkish Threat:   Turkey has been a conduit for arms to Daesh and smuggled oil through Turkey to Europe (EU admitted buying oil from Daesh http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-15/petrodollar-panic-eu-officials-admit-buying-oil-isis  but the world has failed to charge Europe/NATO with state sponsor of terrorism).    McCain to Turkey to Brookings (Iraq and Libya and Chechens).   US wanted Turkey to take a more active role in Syria (and perhaps Iraq – opening of NATO front through Turkey).  But the Turkish people were reluctant to deploy boots in Syria.   WINEP “Tuesday Changed Everything” (June 30^th), after the bombing in Istanbul, the Turkish people were more willing to deploy boots to Syria, but Russia effectively made northern Syria its no fly zone, meaning a no fly zone for Turkish planes. Russia set up an air defense bubble, and the Russians are basically flying there looking for groups of planes to shoot down in retaliation for the November incident. So for Turkey to send in conventional troops, it needs Russia's blessings.

 The failed coup attempt, which I believe was orchestrated with Washington and not by Washington, had several advantages.

 Erdogan's AKP party has maxed out twice at 49.5 percent in the most recent elections of 2011 and 2015. Erdogan wants to become an executive-style president and he wants to change the constitution

. The coup afforded this opportunity.   The pretense of Gulen US being behind the coup, allowed for pretentious rapprochement with Russia.   Turkey deployed boots in Syria without Russian objections.

 Additionally, there had been complaints in the US and article in The Hill, that Gulen was opening too many religious schools, even on military basis.  This would be a warning to Gulen to stop the activities – and curb his power projection.

 In an October 6, article called “Syrian 'Plan B' Options Beyond Immediate Military Confrontation”, WINEP suggested Taking up Turkey's offer to expand the safe zone it established in northern Syria (with some U.S. military support) in August.

 Turkey’s role in Iraq at the moment also shows that NATO is actively re-occupying Iraq.  Turkey’s historical claims to Mosul and America’s cooperation in this theater, indicates that once again, the Kurds will be sacrificed both in Syria and in Iraq.   The Kurds should make note of this.

 

Water Diplomacy – UNESC) 2011   Arab Region

 

Russia and China:    Necons literature predicts Russo-Sino water disputes.  US will try to disrupt Russian-Chinese water cooperation in the coming decades. 

Some 70 million cubic metres of water could be sold to China, rising to one billion cubic metres, said Alexander Tkachev during a meeting in Beijing, but his proposal has led to mixed reactions, including alarm from ecologists. 

Altai are Turkic people and US/Turkey will likely provoke unrest.  Some even suggested color revolutions.

Altai floodwater could be sent to parched Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China, says Russian agriculture minister.

 Perhaps Morsi’s  most serious offense was his opposition to a dam which both Israel and Saudi Arabia favored as they had plans to divert water from the Nile .  In 2012, it was reported that Saudi Arabia had claimed a stake in the Nile .    Israel ’s ambitions went much further back.

In the 1970s Israeli’s idea was to convince Egypt to divert Nile water to Israel .  In 1978, President Anwar Sadat “declared in Haifa to the Israeli public that he would transfer Nile water to the Negev . Shortly afterward, in a letter to Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin, Sadat promised that Nile water would go to Jerusalem .  During Mubarak’s presidency, published reports indicated that Israeli experts were helping Ethiopia to plan 40 dams along the Blue Nile .”^[

 In 2008, the State Department identified “threat” of Iran, Islam, Euroasia ( In 1997, in his book the Grand Chessboard, Brzezinski outlined:

 “... how America "manages" Eurasia is critical. A power that dominates “Eurasia” would control two of the world’s three most advanced and economically productive regions. A mere glance at the map also suggests that control over “Eurasia” would almost automatically entail Africa’s subordination.

 “Eurasia” accounts for about three-fourths of the world’s known energy resources.”

 Daesh: A tool to deploy soldiers for occupation and to diminish Islam.

Even the naming of Daesh and changing it to IS is a deliberate act to drive home Islam and terrorism – and to liken it to IR.  Which Netanyahu readily uses.

 The end of the Cold War had left Israel in an awkward place.   According to The Jerusalem Report, in 1991, the idea that radical Islam would replace communism had taken seed among the Israeli right.  The basis of the idea was founded on the neoconservatives fear that with the demise of the Soviet Union, and the splintering of the America’s right wing faction, there would no longer be an unconditional support for a U.S.-Israel alliance.  In 1993, Samuel Huntington offered the solution, The Clash of Civilizations based on an earlier piece by Bernard Lewis.    

 In line with the neoconservative’s agenda, the mainstream media in the US framed September 11 within the context of Islam and Islamic terrorists.  Bernard Lewis introduced the concept of Jihad and Crusade in an opinion piece.

 In 2012 it was revealed that a course for US military officers has been teaching that America's enemy is Islam in general and suggesting that the country might ultimately have to obliterate the Islamic holy cities of Mecca and Medina without regard for civilian deaths, following second world war precedents of the nuclear attack on Hiroshima.  The plan suggested possible outcomes such as "Saudi Arabia threatened with starvation ... Islam reduced to cult status".

 In 2012, in spite of warning from some military personnel, extremists were armed in Syria.   Revelations of Saudi complicity in 2016 and the law suit, its war crimes in Yemen conducted by the US, all are in Saudi’s demise.

 The Saudis felt considerable annoyance at the United States for doing too little to prevent the Shah’s fall and too much to promote Sadat’s peace initiative”.   This led the Saudis to drop their production by 1 million barrels per day during the Iranian Revolution, playing havoc on oil markets at a most crucial time (Deese and Nye 68)[ii].   Although Saudi Arabia later picked up Iran’s slack, Washington was not prepared to have Saudi Arabia follow Iran’s suite. Nor was Washington accustomed to having an Arab nation ‘threaten’ its oil supply.  

 The US used the Saudis as a gas station and as its gladiators.   2012 reports indicate that by the year 2030, Saudi Arabia will be a net importer of oil due to its own ever growing consumption.  http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-Could-Become-a-Net-Oil-Importer-by-2030.html

Saudis fall (over the years privately and now openly) has led to the rise of UAE.

 

Internet:  Although the State Department refers to the threat of internet as a recruiting tool used by adversaries,  it actually wants the US to have complete control of it.  “A 2003 Pentagon document previously classified as ‘noforn’ (not for release to foreign nationals, including allies), this report details the US military’s information operations, including psychological operations, electronic warfare, and involvement in foreign journalism.”    It consists of effectively communicating U.S. Government (USG) capabilities and intentions as an important means of combating the plans of adversaries. The ability to rapidly disseminate persuasive information to diverse audiences in order to directly influence their decision-making is an increasingly powerful means of deterring aggression.”

 Bascially, “The integrated employment of the core capabilities of Electronic Warfare, Computer Network Operations, Psychological Operations, Military Deception and Operations Security, in concert with specified supporting and related capabilities, to influence, disrupt, corrupt or usurp adversarial human and automated decisions-making while protecting our own.” 

 But they soon learnt this is not a one way street.   Adversaries had capabilities that challenged the supremacy. 

 Moreover, expertise in computer technology and warfare did not require finances that would otherwise debilitate a country.    In other words, the plan actually helped even out the battle field instead of owning it.  But the US still owns access – the World Wide Web

 Extent of hacking, imagined and real, is to curb and control the internet? Censor information.

 Yemen:  Falls in the category of control of waterways.  Importantly, the control of Bab-el Mandeb.

 Cultural Imperialism/neo-colonialism -   This is spread through the media (including the internet) multinational companies, text (books), universities, and student exchanges.  Once an indigenous person is educated and returns to native country, the feeling of inferiority felt in the West is taken home and applied towards own people.   The West or colonial powers, are not only disruptive where culture is concerned, but in creating a gap between the peoples of the same country.

 

Value of (Iranian) bloggers

 

Iran. 

 

Carter, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

 

UANI

 

AIPAC sponsored WINEP

 

Aga Khan Foundation
AmCham Abu Dhabi - American Chamber of Commerce 
Carnegie Corporation of New York
Chevron Corporation
Doris Duke Foundation for Islamic Art (DDFIA)
Dr. Scholl Foundation
Exxon Mobile Corporation 
Ford Foundation 
German Marshall Fund 
Global Intellectual Property Center
Henry Luce Foundation
Oak Foundation 
Ploughshares Fund
Qatar Foundation International
Rockefeller Brothers Fund
Smith Richardson Foundation
Stuart Family Foundation
The Diana Davis Spencer Foundation

The John Templeton Foundation
The National Endowment for the Humanities
The Starr Foundation
The U.S. Agency for International Development
The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation
Turkish Airlines
Una Chapman Cox Foundation
United States Department of State
United States Institute of Peace

 

 

TR: "Democracy has justified itself by keeping for the white race the best portion's of the earth's surface."  The first governor-general of the Philippines, General Arthur MacArthur, father of Douglas, mirrored these ideas when he claimed that "America's wonderful thrust into Asia was the destiny of the magnificent Aryan people."

 

Senator Beveridge (1901) : God has not been preparing the English-speaking and Teutonic peoples for a thousand years for nothing but vain and idle self-admiration. No, he has made us the master organizers of the world...that we may administer government among savages and senile peoples...the Philippines are ours forever...and just beyond the Philippines lie China's illimitable markets...We will not renounce our part inthe mission of our race, trustee under God, of the civilization of the world...China is our natural customer. The Philippines give us a base at the door of the East...it has been charged that our conduct of the war has been cruel. Senators, it has been the reverse. Senators, remember that we are not dealing with Americans or Europeans. We are dealing with Orientals.

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[i] Jan Selby, “Water, Power & Politics in the Middle East; The Other Israeli-Palestinian Conflict”, Palgrave Macmillan, 2003

 

[ii] Deese, David A. and Joseph S. Nye, Ibid