Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Trump: Better The Devil We DON'T Know?

Did the Americans vote for Trump based on the assumption ‘better the devil we don’t know’?   It appears that those who lent him irrefutable support believing that he would avert wars, be pals with Russia, and avoid a nuclear holocaust are in for a surprise.  At least, as far as wars and relations with Russia are concerned. 

Many analysts and researchers have been of the opinion that involvement in Syria would lead to circumstances beyond control.  Assured by Trump’s campaigning, many analysts and intellectuals believed Trump would allow President Assad, Russia, and Iran to rid Syria of ISIL.  Their hope trumped scrutiny.   Hillary, it was thought, would start WWIII whereas Trump would build a new world! 

The day after Trump was elected President, Erdogan and Trump had a cordial chat.  This was to be expected as General Flynn was lobbying on behalf of Turkey and has ties with Turkish businesses.    Yesterday, November 28, 2016, Foreign Affairs (a publication of Council on Foreign Relations) published an article by Dennis Ross and Andrew Tabler.  (Ross was the man behind the unrest in Syria.   In 2008 he met with Syria dissidents and held a meeting called 'Syria in Transition" ).   In this must read article, it was stated that the best option for Syria and getting rid of Assad is Turkey and SDF.  Paper’s recommendations  to Trump in this paper called:  A Syria Policy for Trump; How Washington Can Get to a Settlement”

         The first option, the establishment of limited no-fly/safe zones, has already received some support from both Trump and Vice-President-elect Mike Pence. Announcing the intention to establish no-fly/safe zones would signal to Assad that the new administration does not believe he can actually retake “every inch” of Syrian territory. Of course, a no-fly zone over the entire country would require the United States to attack Syrian and Russian air defense systems—something no president is likely to do given the threat of war with Russia. However, limited no-fly zones along Syria’s borders with Turkey and Jordan already exist, and Turkey’s de-facto safe zone north of Aleppo is an example of how these areas can be blocked off without military confrontation. A smart U.S. strategy would involve deploying special forces to shore up safe zones on the ground and using air strikes and cruise missiles to target regime aircraft and artillery.”

It is fascinating to see how much influence Ross has (and WINEP where he works among other places. 
Emboldened by the Trump presidency, Erdogan has formally declared war on Syria to rid Syria of Assad.  

Russia needs to wake up to the fact that Trump’s card is ‘surprise’.  It must wake up to the reality that Washington (Trump) is using Turkey as a NATO ally to attack Syria (it is mentioned in the paper).

As predicted, Israel is also getting more aggressive bombing Syria.   No one should wait for Trump to make his Secretary of State pick, etc.  These are distractions.  The assault are happening now.


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